TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The dollar was little changed against the yen Monday in Asia, but Tokyo traders said lingering risk aversion will likely send the currency to levels that could herald intervention by the Japanese government.
"The currency market has been quiet so far today because there are not many new and exciting developments, but with many offers present close to the Y81.00 mark, the bias remains downward," said Hiroshi Maeba, a senior dealer at Nomura Securities.
Traders said negative market sentiment on the greenback was especially notable after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data last Friday.
The data, probably the most-influential indicator for the currency market, turned out to be much stronger than the market's consensus. However, the U.S. unit failed to rise after the data release, and instead remained around pre-data levels.
The U.S. unit was at Y80.54 from Y80.65 in Friday New York and the ICE Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, was at 74.551 from 74.915.
Nomura's Maeba said the greenback will likely fall below the Y80.00 mark and may target its record-low of Y76.25. But he added that the pace of decline will be gradual because Japanese institutional investors are constantly buying non-Japanese assets to beef up their investment portfolios.
Slow declines in the dollar against the yen means Japan will have tough time to find reasonable justification for any yen-selling intervention, analysts said.
Due to the nation's heavy reliance on exports, a stronger yen is often considered a big-negative for the economy. "If we are going to see the dollar fall below Y80.00, Japan should step into the market, even by itself," said Yoichi Ito, a senior analyst at STB Research Institute.
But he said that Japanese authorities will likely have trouble finding the right time to step into the market, because market conditions are different from March, when Japan last intervened with its counterparts from the Group of Seven leading nations, Ito said.
"In March, it was excessive yen strength, whereas now is more general dollar-weakness, and the pace in the dollar's decline is much slower than that of two months ago," he said.
Elsewhere, the euro was at $1.4397 and Y115.96 from $1.4315 and Y115.49 Friday. The gains were mostly due to position-adjustments, said Kenichiro Ikezawa, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments.
Yet, he expects the euro to resume falling as concerns over the unity of European countries that stemmed from speculation about Greece possibly exiting the euro.
"We don't really think Greece will do for real, but the talks will be kept using as an excuse to sell the euro by speculators," he said.
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 00:50 EDT / 0450 GMT
Latest Previous %Chg Daily Daily %Chg
2150 GMT High Low 12/31
Dollar Rates
USD/JPY Yen 80.53-57 80.58-62 -0.06 80.84 80.49 -0.84
EUR/USD Euro 1.4396-01 1.4355-62 +0.29 1.4407 1.4339 +7.67
GBP/USD Sterling 1.6384-87 1.6357-62 +0.17 1.6398 1.6341 +5.09
USD/CHF Swiss Franc 0.8749-57 0.8783-93 -0.39 0.8785 0.8747 -18.23
USD/CAD Canadian Dlr 0.9604-08 0.9662-65 -0.60 0.9667 0.9601 -4.25
AUD/USD Australian Dlr 1.0767-72 1.0712-17 +0.51 1.0771 1.0698 +10.02
NZD/USD New Zealand Dlr 0.7926-32 0.7900-10 +0.33 0.7934 0.7885 +1.79
Euro Rate TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The dollar was little changed against the forex signals new 2011 Monday in Asia, but Tokyo traders said lingering risk aversion will likely send the currency to levels that could herald forex signals new 2011 by the Japanese government.
"The currency market has been quiet so far today because there are not many new and exciting developments, but with many offers present close to the Y81.00 mark, the bias remains downward," said Hiroshi Maeba, a senior dealer at Nomura Securities.
Traders said negative market sentiment on the greenback was forex signals new 2011 notable after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data last Friday.
The data, probably the most-influential indicator for the currency market, turned out to be much stronger than the market's consensus. However, the U.S. unit failed to rise after the data release, and instead remained around pre-data levels.
The U.S. unit was at Y80.54 from Y80.65 in Friday New York and the ICE Dollar Index, which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of currencies, was at 74.551 from 74.915.
Nomura's Maeba said the greenback will likely fall below the Y80.00 mark and may target its record-low of Y76.25. But he added that the pace of decline will be gradual because Japanese institutional investors are constantly buying non-Japanese assets to beef up their investment portfolios.
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Slow declines in the dollar against the yen means Japan will have tough time to find reasonable justification for any yen-selling intervention, analysts said.
Due to the nation's heavy reliance on exports, a stronger yen is often considered a big-negative for the economy. "If we are going to see the dollar fall below Y80.00, Japan should step into the market, even by itself," said Yoichi Ito, a senior analyst at STB Research Institute.
But he said that Japanese authorities will likely have trouble finding the right time to step into the market, because market conditions are different from March, when Japan last intervened with its counterparts from the Group of Seven leading nations, Ito said.
"In March, it was excessive yen strength, whereas now is more general dollar-weakness, and the pace in the dollar's decline is much slower than that of two months ago," he said.
Elsewhere, the euro was at $1.4397 and Y115.96 from $1.4315 and Y115.49 Friday. The gains were mostly due to position-adjustments, said Kenichiro Ikezawa, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments.forex signals new 2011 forex signals new 2011
Yet, he expects the euro to resume falling as concerns over the unity of forex signals new 2011 countries that stemmed from speculation about Greece possibly exiting the euro.
"We don't really think Greece will do for real, but the forex signals new 2011 forex signals new 2011 talks will be kept using as an excuse to sell forex signals new 2011 euro by speculators," he said.
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 00:50 EDT / 0450 GMT
Latest Previous %Chg Daily Daily %Chg
2150 GMT High Low 12/31
Dollar Rates
USD/JPY Yen 80.53-57 80.58-62 -0.06 80.84 80.49 -0.84
EUR/USD Euro 1.4396-01 1.4355-62 +0.29 1.4407 1.4339 +7.67
GBP/USD Sterling 1.6384-87 1.6357-62 +0.17 1.6398 1.6341 +5.09
USD/CHF Swiss Franc 0.8749-57 0.8783-93 -0.39 0.8785 0.8747 -18.23
USD/CAD Canadian Dlr 0.9604-08 0.9662-65 -0.60 0.9667 0.9601 -4.25
AUD/USD Australian Dlr 1.0767-72 1.0712-17 +0.51 1.0771 1.0698 +10.02
NZD/USD New Zealand Dlr 0.7926-32 0.7900-10 +0.33 0.7934 0.7885 +1.79
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